More confirmation about what everyone knows. Kyrie's shot biggest in NBA history.
Excerpt below:
Well:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-biggest-shot-in-nba-history-1482235610
"Irving’s shot was statistically worth more than any other shot, according to the Journal’s analysis, in large part because of a surprising lack of competition. The majority of the most iconic NBA shots haven’t been Game 7 highlights. Ray Allen’s last-second 3-pointer forced overtime in Game 6 of the 2013 Finals. Michael Jordan’s last shot with the Chicago Bulls iced Game 6 of the 1998 Finals. Steve Kerr in 1997, John Paxson in 1993, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1974—all Game 6 highlights.
Game 6 is obviously important. Game 7 is obviously more important. The difference in potential championship probability is staggering. A team that wins Game 6 after leading 3-2 already had an excellent chance of winning the title; a team that wins Game 6 after trailing 3-2 still has middling odds. But the math changes in Game 7. That’s when the win probability is the championship probability.
The concept that championship probability could be computed from win probability was a breakthrough in the 2000s from a baseball researcher named Sky Andrecheck. It wasn’t long before others seized on his work and objectively ranked the clutchest Major League Baseball plays—the plays that most improved a team’s chances of winning the World Series. It also wasn’t long before Andrecheck was hired by a baseball team. He’s now the senior director of baseball research and development for the Cleveland Indians. They play across the street from the Cavaliers’ arena.
But win probability in basketball is more of a curiosity than a competitive advantage. That’s why fans, not NBA front offices, have been responsible for its innovation—and why the estimates can still be crude. For this analysis, after consulting with professional and amateur quants, the Journal averaged two win-probability calculators, giving special weight to a formula by Mike Beuoy, an actuary who runs a statistical website called Inpredictable. The model approximates the odds of winning any NBA game given the time, point differential, team strength and which team has possession. The only problem is that NBA play-by-play is still primitive compared with MLB’s. For the older games without publicly available data, the Journal attempted to identify the most critical shots, then contextualized those plays through grainy YouTube clips and digitized newspaper archives.
The analysis showed that Irving’s shot wasn’t especially notable by win probability alone. But championship probability is where it stood apart. To get championship probability from win probability is simple arithmetic: win probability multiplied by championship value. Dave Studeman, the former manager of the Hardball Times, an analytical baseball website, assigned a rough value to every game in the MLB playoffs, which the Journal applied to the NBA postseason. Game 7 in the conference finals, Game 5 in a tied Finals and Game 6 in the Finals are worth 50% of a title—and Game 7 is worth 100%.
There haven’t been many Game 7s, though, and many of those Game 7s haven’t been close. The 2016 Finals were the exception. Cleveland’s win probability when Lue called timeout was a coin flip: 50.2%. It inched upward with every dribble and spiked when Irving shot. Cleveland’s likelihood of winning the game—and the NBA title—was suddenly 82.3%. That change in championship probability was, according to the Journal’s analysis, the largest swing the league has ever seen."
