So my buddy asked me to help him fill out his Pick 8 this year, a concept I'd never heard of. I thought it was interesting enough to ask you guys who you'd take.


For those who don't know how it works, you pick 8 teams and each time they win, you get an amount of points corresponding to their seed. So if Florida wins the national championship, you'd only get 6 points (6 wins * 1 seed) whereas if you took Kentucky and they win their first game you'd already have 8 points. You want to have the most combined points at the end.


Here's who we took:

Stephen F. Austin (12)
Harvard (12)
NDSU (12)
Michigan State (4)
Baylor (6)
Kentucky (8)
George Washington (9)
New Mexico (7)

Who would you guys take?

Did something like this with my buddies last night. I like Oregon and Oklahoma State as well.

Baylor, UConn, Michigan State, Louisville, Kentucky, Oregon, VCU, and either OSU or UNC. I would give each of them (OSU and UNC, not every team listed) about a 1 in 3 chance to win 2 games.

Off the top of my head: Baylor, New Mexico, North Dakota State, Louisville, Michigan State, Harvard, NC State and VCU.

Michigan State
Louisville
Arizona State
New Mexico
NDST
NCST
UConn
Tennessee

Iliketurtles;1593477 wrote: Tennessee

GRRRR!! We had to submit it last night before the game ended and now I have Tennessee advancing to the Elite 8 (I know simulators aren't the end all be all, but they're 56% favorites to beat Duke and 57% favorites to beat Michigan. That's awfully impressive for an 11 seed)

lhslep134;1593484 wrote:GRRRR!! We had to submit it last night before the game ended and now I have Tennessee advancing to the Elite 8 (I know simulators aren't the end all be all, but they're 56% favorites to beat Duke and 57% favorites to beat Michigan. That's awfully impressive for an 11 seed)

Damn that sucks. I just picked them because I think they beat UMASS, don't think they beat Duke(homer) but I wouldn't be shocked if they did.

I would go with

sfa
msu
Louisville
providence
duke
uconn
Arizona st
Stanford
ULL

This is tough - a #3 or #4 seed basically has to win 2 games just to have the same expected value as a #12 seed in a coin-flip. I don't really like that the rounds aren't progressively weighted more - no way should ARI winning it all net half a #12 seed winning a single game.

I'd look for 4-7 seeds that I'm confident could win a few games with upside for more. Tempting to pick 11/12 seeds, but unless you see a good path to the Sweet 16 those don't seem like they'd help you much. I'd aim for an "expected" value of at least 8 points, and most of the 12 seeds would seem to be at or below that.

I'd pick four or five 4-6 seeds that I thought had a good chance to win 3 or more games. Then I'd be left with three or four lower seeds I thought had a decent shot at the Sweet 16.