accidentally posted this in the thread in serious business.

Houston (-17.5) over USF tonight is about as sure of a bet as you can make.

USF is terrible. The only two games they won, they didnt even score an offensive touchdown. They are also starting a true fresh at QB tonight. Houston is looking to make a statement in a prime-time, nationally televised game.

Laley23;1526701 wrote:Vegas makes lines for the public. Typically, public likes favorites cause they dont want to put money on a team they dont think will win the game (even if they will cover). Then the sharks put money on underdogs and make money. Vegas still wins...its why they are sharks and crunch numbers and make a living off of selling their thoughts to people.


Quick search. Last year underdogs won 52.4%. This year they are at 53.4%

Actually these so called "Sharks" make their money selling "expert" picks. No one is making a living by betting money. The reality is these guys are just snake oil salesmen who peddle their bullshit. Sorry.

I agree with your other points though. There is a penalty for picking the favorite even with the spread but its still not enough to sway the long term/final spread of any game.

I'm all for sports betting if its a tool to enjoy a game even more than you normally would. I'm not buying any shit that people are making money in the long run or that its possible to beat Vegas either. The house always wins, always.

sleeper;1526914 wrote:I'm all for sports betting if its a tool to enjoy a game even more than you normally would. I'm not buying any shit that people are making money in the long run or that its possible to beat Vegas either. The house always wins, always.

Agree in general. At least in sports betting, it's actually possible to win (even though nearly no one does), as opposed to table games, where losing is a mathematical certainty.

As you said, if you treat it as entertainment, have at it.

queencitybuckeye;1526922 wrote:
As you said, if you treat it as entertainment, have at it.

Pretty much what I do. I don't bet much and like to make 1-5$ bets on random props..

Pick6;1526899 wrote:accidentally posted this in the thread in serious business.

Houston (-17.5) over USF tonight is about as sure of a bet as you can make.

USF is terrible. The only two games they won, they didnt even score an offensive touchdown. They are also starting a true fresh at QB tonight. Houston is looking to make a statement in a prime-time, nationally televised game.

What about at -19?

ohiobucks1;1526743 wrote:explain

A teaser where you buy more points. Usually in football if you buy 10 pts against the spread you have to parlay 3 games. 4 games at -13.

So if a team is favored by 11 you include them in the teaser at -1. Or get +21 if you like the underdog.

Bets I am placing right now:

Miami Dolphins +145 (Cinci just blew out an opponent and will probably return back to earth, it's a Thursday game @ Miami)
Washington State +12 (Mike Leach's teams normally score points)
Oregon State -4 (@ Oregon State, USC is bad)
Purdue +32.5 (OSU tends to struggle against them for some damn reason, it's @ Purdue)
Texas Tech -1.5 (Tech scores a lot of points, and they are 1 points away from being undefeated

The Houston game was compelling tonight, but I was hesitant to take them at -19 because South Florida is starting a new QB tonight and you can't gauge how well he is.

I italicized my most "confident picks". Dolphins are my complete guess for the week.

A lock next week is the Oregon/Stanford game. Oregon is most certainly going to be favored. A wise bet would be to pick Stanford straight up... I'm betting the moneyline will be decent on it.

FWIW, this site allows free sports betting that you can win real money(can only cash out certain thresholds though). It's kind of nice for people who like to bet sports but realize its a losing proposition in the long run.

http://www.centsports.com/

Enjoy!

sleeper;1526913 wrote:Actually these so called "Sharks" make their money selling "expert" picks. No one is making a living by betting money. The reality is these guys are just snake oil salesmen who peddle their bullshit. Sorry.

I agree with your other points though. There is a penalty for picking the favorite even with the spread but its still not enough to sway the long term/final spread of any game.

They aren't making a living off of their winnings, per se. But they are making a living off of bing right more than they are wrong, and this selling their opinions like salesmen. We agree in principle, I don't think sports betting is a way to make money. You can make some short term but over the course of time will even out.

I prefer to bet on sports and go in on pools that are ATS. It's betting against Vegas, but not directly. That's how I've made money, at least the big wins. Not by beating Vegas, but by beating Vegas more than the rest of the people in the pool I'm in...

Laley23;1527032 wrote:They aren't making a living off of their winnings, per se. But they are making a living off of bing right more than they are wrong, and this selling their opinions like salesmen. We agree in principle, I don't think sports betting is a way to make money. You can make some short term but over the course of time will even out.

I prefer to bet on sports and go in on pools that are ATS. It's betting against Vegas, but not directly. That's how I've made money, at least the big wins. Not by beating Vegas, but by beating Vegas more than the rest of the people in the pool I'm in...

I find that I make money (slowly) if I spread cash around on many bets as opposed to just throwing cash down on one game. I started the season with $20 in my account and had turned that cash into about $110 until I got greedy and didn't spread my bets around one weekend. I lost half of my winnings on a game that was decided by 1 point, and I lost the rest by trying to recoup my previous nights losses on what I thought was a "safe" bet. Who would've thought the Patriots would've lost to the fucking Jets?

sleeper will be pleased to know that I won a sizable chunk of cash on the ND/Bama title game. Easiest bet I've ever been a part of.

Im probably going to lose on this Houston game. They are dominating but just fucking up lol

Houston is going to run away with it after that bonehead USF onside kick try.

Edit: Two plays later, TD. Shocking.

lol fucking houston.

God, South Florida's penalties. 19 total for 163 yards.

Pick6;1527095 wrote:lol fucking houston.

agreed

My account isn't fully set up yet, but I would have bet the Under(36) on the CIN/MIA game tonight. Would have lost. Not a good start.

Added Cincy -3
$20.36 to win $16.29 - Lost (fucking dalton)
Added Dalton to be firstTD scorer $1 to win 32 - Lost
Added Eifert to be first TD scorer $1 to win 16 - Lost
added FG to be first points $5 to win $5.35 - Won
Houston -19 over USF - $13 to win 11.82 - Lost


live bets:
Cincy to kick a touchback - $1 to win $.32 - Won
Miami to get 20-39 yards on their first OT drive - $1 to win $3.21 - Lost
Cincy - Pass Incomplete on the next play - $1 to win 2.51$ -
Lost
miami play - Pass incomplete #1 to win $3.51 - No action (PI)
miami to NOT get 1st down - $1 to win $2.08 - Won
Cincy to rush - $6 -
Lost

Tomorrow:

Cavs -2.5 @ Charlotte

Still up $88.24 so far.

My Miami pick was correct.

do you guys use anything for extra information or do you just do all the research on your own?

hasbeen;1528074 wrote:do you guys use anything for extra information or do you just do all the research on your own?

I do most of the research on my own, but did come across covers.com for some extra info on teams I'm not very familiar with.

I'm not doing shit this week

Roger. First Saturday turned into a $17 loss. Granted they were mainly $1 bets so I didn't care. Just figuring it all out.

I put $12 on Winston scoring the first TD in the game. He did everything on that first drive except score the TD. Fuck that

Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125283 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (423) Chicago Bears +11 (-115) Nov 04/13@09:40p Competitor: (424) Green Bay Packers	Web	US$ 2.00	US$ 1.74
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125282 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (415) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +17 (-125) Nov 03/13@05:05p Competitor: (416) Seattle Seahawks	Web	US$ 3.00	US$ 2.40
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125281 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL WEEK 9 (403) Minnesota Vikings vs. (404) Dallas Cowboys Over 49½ Nov 03/13@02:00p	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 0.91
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125280 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL WEEK 9 (405) New Orleans Saints vs. (406) New York Jets Over 46 (-115) Nov 03/13@02:00p	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 0.87
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125279 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL WEEK 9 (423) Chicago Bears vs. (424) Green Bay Packers Over 50 (-115) Nov 04/13@09:40p	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 0.87
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125278 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (403) Minnesota Vikings +10 (-105) Nov 03/13@02:00p Competitor: (404) Dallas Cowboys	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 0.95
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125277 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (407) Tennessee Titans -3 (-105) Nov 03/13@02:00p Competitor: (408) St. Louis Rams	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 0.95
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	10 Team Parlay #316125276 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (403) Minnesota Vikings +10 (-105) Nov 03/13@02:00p Competitor: (404) Dallas Cowboys Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL WEEK 9 (403) Minnesota Vikings vs. (404) Dallas Cowboys Over 49½ Nov 03/13@02:00p Football - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline NFL WEEK 9 (404) Dallas Cowboys -500 Nov 03/13@02:00p Competitor: (403) Minnesota Vikings Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL WEEK 9 (405) New Orleans Saints vs. (406) New York Jets Over 46 (-115) Nov 03/13@02:00p Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (407) Tennessee Titans -3 (-105) Nov 03/13@02:00p Competitor: (408) St. Louis Rams Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL WEEK 9 (407) Tennessee Titans vs. (408) St. Louis Rams Under 39½ Nov 03/13@02:00p Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (411) San Diego Chargers -1 (-105) Nov 03/13@02:00p Competitor: (412) Washington Redskins Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (415) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +17 (-125) Nov 03/13@05:05p Competitor: (416) Seattle Seahawks Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (423) Chicago Bears +11 (-115) Nov 04/13@09:40p Competitor: (424) Green Bay Packers Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL WEEK 9 (423) Chicago Bears vs. (424) Green Bay Packers Over 50 (-115) Nov 04/13@09:40p	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 381.84
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125275 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL WEEK 9 (407) Tennessee Titans vs. (408) St. Louis Rams Under 39½ Nov 03/13@02:00p	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 0.91
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125274 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline NFL WEEK 9 (404) Dallas Cowboys -500 Nov 03/13@02:00p Competitor: (403) Minnesota Vikings	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 0.20
Nov 02, 2013 10:14:11 PM	Single #316125273 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL WEEK 9 (411) San Diego Chargers -1 (-105) Nov 03/13@02:00p Competitor: (412) Washington Redskins	Web	US$ 1.00	US$ 0.95

Yes, I know. I'm a vagina for betting $1 on all except 2.