FatHobbit
Posts: 8,651
May 23, 2013 9:14am
http://collegespun.com/pac-12/usc/the-top-12-most-consistently-overrated-college-football-programs-of-the-bca-era-statistically/2
I'm not sure why they did top 12, but...
1 Florida State
2 Nebraska
3 Tennessee
4 Florida
5 Oklahoma
6 Michigan
7 West Virginia
8 Texas
9 California
10 LSU
11 USC
12 Miami
I'm not sure why they did top 12, but...
1 Florida State
2 Nebraska
3 Tennessee
4 Florida
5 Oklahoma
6 Michigan
7 West Virginia
8 Texas
9 California
10 LSU
11 USC
12 Miami
ernest_t_bass
Posts: 24,984
May 23, 2013 9:35am
How is Notre Dame not on the list? Not trolling. Being serious.
Fab1b
Posts: 12,949
May 23, 2013 9:40am
ernest_t_bass;1447090 wrote:How is Notre Dame not on the list? Not trolling. Being serious.
Agree
Also very surprised to see some of the schools on this since teams like FL, LSU, USC, TX has had good BCS success in the era.
karen lotz
Posts: 22,284
May 23, 2013 9:58am
ernest_t_bass;1447090 wrote:How is Notre Dame not on the list? Not trolling. Being serious.
The average difference between their preseason and final AP rankings wasn't in the top 12.
W
WebFire
Posts: 14,779
May 23, 2013 10:09am
Not sure why Michigan made the list. In order to be overrated, you have to be rated higher than your results. Rich Rod pretty much took care of that. 
C
Con_Alma
Posts: 12,198
May 23, 2013 10:20am
Agreed.WebFire;1447105 wrote:... In order to be overrated, you have to be rated higher than your results. ...
FatHobbit
Posts: 8,651
May 23, 2013 10:31am
I'm assuming they must have been rated to start the season at least a couple of times.WebFire;1447105 wrote:Not sure why Michigan made the list. In order to be overrated, you have to be rated higher than your results. Rich Rod pretty much took care of that.
IMHO this poll is more a criticism of the people doing the ratings than of the actual teams themselves.
mucalum49
Posts: 1,639
May 23, 2013 10:44am
Thanks for that explanation. I would have thought Virginia Tech would be up there. But maybe they've never been ranked high enough to start to make a big enough difference.karen lotz;1447101 wrote:The average difference between their preseason and final AP rankings wasn't in the top 12.
FatHobbit
Posts: 8,651
May 23, 2013 11:13am
that surprises me toomucalum49;1447141 wrote:Thanks for that explanation. I would have thought Virginia Tech would be up there. But maybe they've never been ranked high enough to start to make a big enough difference.
ESPN only goes back to 2002 and I'm using the USA today numbers.
year preseason final difference
2002 16 14 +2
2003 10 UR -15
2004 UR 10 +15
2005 7 7 0
2006 16 18 -2
2007 9 9 0
2008 15 14 +1
2009 7 10 -3
2010 6 15 -9
2011 13 17 -4
2012 20 UR -5
They average being over rated by 1.8 games
Iliketurtles
Posts: 8,191
May 23, 2013 11:28am
Lol that they used the AP Poll(AKA the most meaningless poll in college football) to do this. I figured there was no doubt that FSU would be #1. Was really surprised to see Tennessee at 3. Also like others I was really surprised to not see ND or VT on this list.
Also it's pretty dumb to just say if they weren't ranked in the top 25 at the end that they were automatically 26th. At the bottom of the top 25 they list out other teams that got votes? I'm sure that you could go to probably 40ish in most cases.
Also it's pretty dumb to just say if they weren't ranked in the top 25 at the end that they were automatically 26th. At the bottom of the top 25 they list out other teams that got votes? I'm sure that you could go to probably 40ish in most cases.
Fly4Fun
Posts: 7,730
May 23, 2013 11:45am
The "statistical" analysis that they used was pretty basic and leaves their end result open to a lot of criticism.
It was just a quick article that they figured would create controversy and get them hits for relatively little work or original thought.
It was just a quick article that they figured would create controversy and get them hits for relatively little work or original thought.
ts1227
Posts: 12,319
May 23, 2013 12:40pm
ernest_t_bass;1447090 wrote:How is Notre Dame not on the list? Not trolling. Being serious.
Because of all of the years in the BCS era that they were shitty and not overrated.
Mohican00
Posts: 3,394
May 23, 2013 2:30pm
Thank you Bob Davie, Ty Willingham, and Señor Weists1227;1447202 wrote:Because of all of the years in the BCS era that they were shitty and not overrated.
Midstate01
Posts: 14,766
May 23, 2013 3:07pm
Va tech is easily the most overrated program. Followed by Oklahoma, Norte Dame and Texas.
ernest_t_bass
Posts: 24,984
May 23, 2013 3:13pm
No. No, no, no, no, no. No. NO! They're not on the list. NO!Midstate01;1447352 wrote:Va tech is easily the most overrated program. Followed by Oklahoma, Norte Dame and Texas.
Pick6
Posts: 14,946
May 23, 2013 3:30pm
3 SEC teams, including two of probably the top 3. Interesting.
Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
May 23, 2013 3:40pm
Decent amount of these teams have won NC, which could lead to them having bloated expectations the next year. Hmmm, looking at these teams accomplishments over the span, doesn't seem so bad to be on this list.
FatHobbit
Posts: 8,651
May 23, 2013 3:46pm
Agree. I think winning a national championship makes a team more likely to be highly ranked in the preseason which gives them a reasonable shot at underachieving. Teams who aren't highly ranked in the preseason will have a hard time under achieving.Commander of Awesome;1447373 wrote:Decent amount of these teams have won NC, which could lead to them having bloated expectations the next year. Hmmm, looking at these teams accomplishments over the span, doesn't seem so bad to be on this list.
Raw Dawgin' it
Posts: 11,466
May 23, 2013 3:49pm
Notre Dame isn't overrated, no one ever picks them to win shit. Notre Dame is a school will low expectations, so anything above a .500 season is considered a success.
Classyposter58
Posts: 6,321
May 24, 2013 10:51am
Good list, FSU and Nebraska are the definition of overrated. I'd call Notre Dame over loved. Everyone loves em, they get crazy publicity, yet except for last year they are a typically a 7-9 win team
killer_ewok
Posts: 11,379
May 24, 2013 11:53am
Classyposter58;1447727 wrote:Good list, FSU and Nebraska are the definition of overrated. I'd call Notre Dame over loved. Everyone loves em, they get crazy publicity, yet except for last year they are a typically a 7-9 win team
I wouldn't say everyone loves them. I get where you were going with it but they have just as many who hate them as they do those who love them. And it's typically one extreme or the other when it comes to the media. They're either piling on (sometimes warranted) or pumping them up (sometimes the praise is warranted). I can't stand the "luck of the Irish" stuff when they win a game. Rarely hear it said how unlucky they are at times when they lose.
Anyways, based on the criteria/formula for this list, while it is kinda flawed, it makes sense why ND didn't make the list.
Q
queencitybuckeye
Posts: 7,117
May 24, 2013 11:59am
Flawed in what way? Based on what the word actually means as opposed to the incorrect way it's commonly used, it seems to be a pretty logical formula.killer_ewok;1447797 wrote:
Anyways, based on the criteria/formula for this list, while it is kinda flawed, it makes sense why ND didn't make the list.
Iliketurtles
Posts: 8,191
May 24, 2013 12:07pm
You're right it logical to say that just because a team didn't finish in the top 25 that they automatically finished 26th. That is pretty much the main and most obvious flaw.queencitybuckeye;1447804 wrote:Flawed in what way? Based on what the word actually means as opposed to the incorrect way it's commonly used, it seems to be a pretty logical formula.
Q
queencitybuckeye
Posts: 7,117
May 24, 2013 12:11pm
True, it underestimates the worst underachievers.Iliketurtles;1447815 wrote:You're right it logical to say that just because a team didn't finish in the top 25 that they automatically finished 26th. That is pretty much the main and most obvious flaw.
Mulva
Posts: 13,650
May 24, 2013 11:03pm
I agree with the top 2 on the list.