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Crimson and Gray Hair's avatar

Crimson and Gray Hair

Senior Member

384 posts
Mar 1, 2013 1:11 PM
Anyone do their own investing and interested in some occasional discussion of winners, losers, personal favorites, markets etc?

I don't consider myself a very savvy investor. I make more than my fair share of mistakes. I've made and lost plenty in my portfolio at different times over the years. I have sweated my way through some handsome loses in market crashes but have enjoyed the ride overall.
Mar 1, 2013 1:11pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 1, 2013 1:25 PM
I stick mostly with ETF's. Asset allocation is 80% of the game. Risk management is most of the rest. I probably spend more time studying the macro than most people spend on their individual picks.

Picking individual stocks is a nice hobby, but consider the vast majority of professional investors cannot consistently outperform the indexes, at least not in excess of their fees.
Mar 1, 2013 1:25pm
Devils Advocate's avatar

Devils Advocate

Brudda o da bomber

4,539 posts
Mar 1, 2013 1:40 PM
I pulled all of my money out of the market. The POTUS is wrecking it. It's his fault the market is hovering around 14,000. It should be up to 17 by now.
Mar 1, 2013 1:40pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 1, 2013 1:49 PM
Just watch out for fixed income - MASSIVE bubble that includes sovereign debt. The housing bubble wiped out people's savings, and the debt bubble is going to wipe out their pensions.
Mar 1, 2013 1:49pm
derek bomar's avatar

derek bomar

Senior Member

3,722 posts
Mar 1, 2013 1:56 PM
short JCP
Mar 1, 2013 1:56pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 1, 2013 1:56 PM
Back to the topic, if I were going to buy a stock I'd look at Google and Samsung. That's not a recommendation - I have no idea of those values relative to growth prospects. Be wary of "priced to perfection", whereby all your rosy optimism is already incorporated into the value - one little hiccup and BANG! But you can certainly ride momentum well beyond fundamental value for a good bit....lots of herd mentality in the markets.
Mar 1, 2013 1:56pm
sleeper's avatar

sleeper

Legend

27,879 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:04 PM
I invest most of my money in ETFs as well. I have a few stocks that I toss some money at occasionally like Google, Apple, Exxon and Coke. I'm not a big stock market player though; it's a losing man's game unless you are an institutional investor.
Mar 1, 2013 2:04pm
Raw Dawgin' it's avatar

Raw Dawgin' it

Just Ain't Care

11,466 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:05 PM
derek bomar;1398542 wrote:short JCP
They're a fail. Apple is way down and not a bad buy. Groupon fired their CEO so they may be worth looking at too, their stock was below $4 from $20. I was reading that online gaming companies might get a bump from NJ legalizing.
Mar 1, 2013 2:05pm
sleeper's avatar

sleeper

Legend

27,879 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:12 PM
I'd never buy Groupon. Worst company ever.
Mar 1, 2013 2:12pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:13 PM
CZR - Caesar's entertainment, make a play on the legalization of online gaming. It's up about 250% over the past year, though, so it's already rallied on that expectation. I would guess there's still plenty of upside, but there's a lot of risk.

Slap on an 'ol Texas hedge and go short some regional casino operators :p
Mar 1, 2013 2:13pm
Raw Dawgin' it's avatar

Raw Dawgin' it

Just Ain't Care

11,466 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:14 PM
sleeper;1398551 wrote:I'd never buy Groupon. Worst company ever.
could make a comeback after ceo firing. But not something to throw lots of money into.
Mar 1, 2013 2:14pm
sleeper's avatar

sleeper

Legend

27,879 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:15 PM
Raw Dawgin' it;1398556 wrote:could make a comeback after ceo firing. But not something to throw lots of money into.
Let me know when they fire the board too. I'd be surprised if Groupon lasts another 5 years.
Mar 1, 2013 2:15pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:17 PM
Raw Dawgin' it;1398546 wrote: I was reading that online gaming companies might get a bump from NJ legalizing.
Probably a better play than CZR (and not just because of its valuation)...CZR has the added problem of debt overhang and physical casinos that online gaming might cannibalize.

Maybe even go long some of the software players and hedge some of the downside short CZR (and I'm not going to do it, nor should a novice attempt it)
Mar 1, 2013 2:17pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:19 PM
sleeper;1398557 wrote:Let me know when they fire the board too. I'd be surprised if Groupon lasts another 5 years.
There's some value there, viewed as a potential takeover target. Don't know if the price for that is right, but park a few bucks there and wait for a takeover and get a 30% pop or more.


disclosure: Just throwing out ideas for research, I'm in no way making recommendations
Mar 1, 2013 2:19pm
sleeper's avatar

sleeper

Legend

27,879 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:20 PM
I'd rather die than invest a penny into a failing company like Groupon. How much is their Chicago office worth? That's about the only value I see.
Mar 1, 2013 2:20pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:29 PM
sleeper;1398562 wrote:I'd rather die than invest a penny into a failing company like Groupon. How much is their Chicago office worth? That's about the only value I see.
The brand and consumer database all have value. I could see a Google, Facebook, maybe an Amazon having interest in buying it. It will get taken out at some point, question is at what price?
Mar 1, 2013 2:29pm
sleeper's avatar

sleeper

Legend

27,879 posts
Mar 1, 2013 2:46 PM
gut;1398566 wrote:The brand and consumer database all have value. I could see a Google, Facebook, maybe an Amazon having interest in buying it. It will get taken out at some point, question is at what price?
Free.
Mar 1, 2013 2:46pm
O-Trap's avatar

O-Trap

Chief Shenanigans Officer

14,994 posts
Mar 1, 2013 10:43 PM
sleeper;1398551 wrote:I'd never buy Groupon. Worst company ever.

It's up there.
sleeper;1398557 wrote:Let me know when they fire the board too. I'd be surprised if Groupon lasts another 5 years.

It wasn't designed to be a long-term company, honestly. Get in, get rich, and get out.
sleeper;1398583 wrote:Free.
Nah. Consumer data will be worth something. Doubt the branding will be worth much, though.
Mar 1, 2013 10:43pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 1, 2013 10:50 PM
O-Trap;1398741 wrote: Nah. Consumer data will be worth something. Doubt the branding will be worth much, though.
You'd be surprised. Everyone has heard of Groupon. I'll bet 99.9% of people cannot name the struggling competitors backed by Google and Amazon. Google offered $6B before Groupon decided to go public.
Mar 1, 2013 10:50pm
O-Trap's avatar

O-Trap

Chief Shenanigans Officer

14,994 posts
Mar 1, 2013 10:51 PM
gut;1398745 wrote:You'd be surprised. Everyone has heard of Groupon. I'll bet 99.9% of people cannot name the struggling competitors backed by Google and Amazon. Google offered $6B before Groupon decided to go public.
Perhaps. Any name recognition is probably good, I suppose.
Mar 1, 2013 10:51pm
S

sportchampps

Senior Member

7,361 posts
Mar 2, 2013 1:21 AM
Groupon gained like 4% yesterday from the firing alone
Mar 2, 2013 1:21am
S

sportchampps

Senior Member

7,361 posts
Mar 2, 2013 1:26 AM
I would recommend Marathon and Whirlpool. Those were my best two performing stocks from last year or so. The has business is always strong and whirlpool is getting help from the housing market rebound. I shoulda bought into Sprint/Nextel because all the numbers look good except their losing market share which scares me.
Mar 2, 2013 1:26am
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Mar 2, 2013 4:41 AM
sportchampps;1398787 wrote:Groupon gained like 4% yesterday from the firing alone
I looked at it (by which I mean a drive by). It's up like 90% in the past 6 months. So all the speculators have already piled in. There's support at $2.50-$3/sh, but probably not a good takeover play at these prices. There are some other issues, also. I wouldn't touch it, at least not at this price.
Mar 2, 2013 4:41am
Crimson and Gray Hair's avatar

Crimson and Gray Hair

Senior Member

384 posts
Mar 2, 2013 8:08 AM
I've enjoyed a nice affair with GE and ILMN over the past 5 years.

I first purchased GE in late '08 at just over 13 and followed that up early in '09 - in as low as 6.77. Just made no sense not to buy at that price - only wish I'd had more cash available to buy with. Booking very nice dividends on it all along as well.

ILMN has been the leader in DNA sequencing. I took my first position in early '07. I was following it closely with a stop order and got taken out on a big dip one day - was really pissed at myself. I ended up buying it back a few days and a few dollars later. ILMN is expensive now and not likely to see the soaring gains again but the future of their expertise is wide open and they are the best at what they do. My biggest concern now is a takeover. They fought of a hostile bid from Roche(with some questionable tactics) late in '11 but they are still a savory target. I would like to be there 10 years down the road after it all pays out, so I'm holding my cards for now.
Mar 2, 2013 8:08am