Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 27, 2012 7:31pm
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/
He may have a point...there may not be enough time for Romney
He may have a point...there may not be enough time for Romney
LJ
Posts: 16,351
Oct 27, 2012 7:44pm
C'mon man, you know the rules
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 27, 2012 8:00pm
Its been fixed....my bad
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 27, 2012 9:05pm
ccrunner609;1305830 wrote:Give me a break, this guy is the most biased blogger out there
Actually....he is widely respected on both sides of the aisle
E
elitesmithie05
Posts: 94
Oct 27, 2012 9:10pm
If by both sides of the aisle, you mean a room full of socialists and Marxists than yes you are right.Ty Webb;1305869 wrote:
Actually....he is widely respected on both sides of the aisle
I
I Wear Pants
Posts: 16,223
Oct 27, 2012 11:27pm
This dude is actually pretty accurate most of the time.
fish82
Posts: 4,111
Oct 29, 2012 5:41am
His prediction model is usually accurate. That said, he's been feeding it the same bogus poll data that the rest of us see every day.I Wear Pants;1306031 wrote:This dude is actually pretty accurate most of the time.
fish82
Posts: 4,111
Oct 29, 2012 9:47am
Rasmussen about to release the latest numbers for Ohio, with Mitt up 50-48.
Nate is going to have an uncomfortable night next week.
Nate is going to have an uncomfortable night next week.
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 29, 2012 10:45am
1 poll out of 7. Yep...Romney's going to win!:rolleyes:fish82;1307074 wrote:Rasmussen about to release the latest numbers for Ohio, with Mitt up 50-48.
Nate is going to have an uncomfortable night next week.
If Rasmussen is so great....why doesn't he release crosstabs for his polls??
Isn't it funny after 3 polls yesterday came out showing Obama up 1-3 points that he releases a ONE DAY poll.
fish82
Posts: 4,111
Oct 29, 2012 10:50am
Where did I say Romney was going to win? I just said that Nate is going to need to walk back his "not a battleground" bullsht.Ty Webb;1307109 wrote:1 poll out of 7. Yep...Romney's going to win!:rolleyes:
If Rasmussen is so great....why doesn't he release crosstabs for his polls??
Isn't it funny after 3 polls yesterday came out showing Obama up 1-3 points that he releases a ONE DAY poll.
You're getting more rattled by the day, bro. You gonna make it to next Tuesday?
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 29, 2012 10:54am
"Toss-up" was the phrase he used...but it's pretty much the same thingfish82;1307112 wrote:Where did I say Romney was going to win? I just said that Nate is going to need to walk back his "not a battleground" bullsht.
You're getting more rattled by the day, bro. You gonna make it to next Tuesday?
I'm going to be fine fish....no matter what happens. As I'm sure you will be as well....I can't say the same for some others here
In the end....I believe Obama carries Ohio and Romney carries Florida. Virginia I really dont know
B
BoatShoes
Posts: 5,703
Oct 29, 2012 12:57pm
I don't really know anything about polling but I'm just not sure I would bet on systematic widespread polling failure resulting in the aggregation of polling data being a totally erroneous pursuit.fish82;1306993 wrote:His prediction model is usually accurate. That said, he's been feeding it the same bogus poll data that the rest of us see every day.
But hey, one week to go and this will be over (hopefully).
Realistically I'd be much happier with a clear Romney win than some kind of electoral tie, etc.
fish82
Posts: 4,111
Oct 29, 2012 5:15pm
His model is only as good as the polling data he feeds into it. He's using the polls with those whacky D+7 samples in them, and it's giving him an exaggerated sense of security.BoatShoes;1307237 wrote:I don't really know anything about polling but I'm just not sure I would bet on systematic widespread polling failure resulting in the aggregation of polling data being a totally erroneous pursuit.
But hey, one week to go and this will be over (hopefully).
Realistically I'd be much happier with a clear Romney win than some kind of electoral tie, etc.
Agreed 100% on your last point. I'll be bummed but not suicidal if Obie wins. But if it's close enough that everyone starts lawering up, I'll be on the 6:00 news at the top of some tower spraying bullets.