bulldog8 wrote:
ESPN did a nice comparison on the three tonight. I will provide what they presented, but I recalculated the opponents' win percentage because I thought TCU's was significantly lower than what ESPN presented and it was:
Cincinnati - 0 losses, 3-0 vs. top 25 teams, opponents' win percentage 0.490, points per game 39.8
TCU - 0 losses, 2-0 vs. top 25 teams, opponents' win percentage 0.486, points per game 40.7
Texas - 0 losses, 2-0 vs. top 25 teams, opponents' win percentage 0.529, points per game 40.7
These three teams are putting up similar PPG and are essentially indifferentiable when it comes to overall record and record against top 25 teams. However, when comparing the opponents' win percentages, it is apparent that Texas has played a tougher schedule than Cinci and TCU. For this reason, and the fact that the BCS does not look at margin of victory in consideration, the best case can be made for Texas.
There was talk on another thread earlier this week that led to looking at more than just a strict PPG average and looking at what other teams did outside of the games against the teams in this conversation. I don't feel like going back and looking at it now, but the defensive example that was most impressive was that TCU held every single opponent below their season average. Cincinnati, in (now) three recent games gave up a couple TDs more than what those teams averaged against the remainder of their schedule. I would imagine Texas and TCU are fairly similar in how they've scored and allowed points, though Texas' recent game against Texas A&M was a big defensive letdown.
I'm pretty well sold on TCU as legit, but if you have to differentiate the two somehow, there are a lot of little things that work in Texas' favor (including the opponent's win % that you pointed out above).