Scarlet_Buckeye;865398 wrote:I think we have a lot of people on here wearing scarlet & gray glasses.
(1) We lost our head coach. We're breaking in a new head coach, and not just a new head coach, but a first time head coach at that. I know the philosophy will largely remain the same (i.e., Tressel ball), and I know many expect us to get by on talent alone, but there's a reason why great teams have great coaches. And sure Fickell can turn out to be an All-Star head coach, but I have to imagine that a new head coach will attribute to at least 1 loss.
(2) We're breaking in a new QB. We have some serious questions as to who our QB is going to be. The early favorite, or should I say fan favorite, is TRUE FRESHMAN Braxton Miller. Not even Tim Tebow himself came in his freshman season and started. And this is THE most important position on the entire field. I gotta believe that breaking in a new QB will cost us at least 1 game; and if it's a true freshman (i.e., Braxton Miller), I think you can add another game ontop of that.
(3) We're missing 4 key players for the first 5 games. Starting left tackle (arguably the 2nd most important position on a football team, starting running back, star wide receiver, and a key defensive end (a position which we're already thin at). It's not the fact that we're missing 4 key players, it's the fact that we're missing our starting LT, #1 RB, #1 WR, and [what would have been] our #1 QB. That alone will contribute to 1 loss [in my mind].
(4) Significant youth on our depth chart, combined with a pretty abysmal linebacking core. While youth is typically a sign of talent emerging, in our case, I think it's a sign of inexperience and the lack of surrounding talent. From what I'm seeing, I think this will be one of the weakest LB cores we've had in quite some time. There's no Hawk, Laurinaitis, or even a Homan, in this group [IMO]. I think that will be a loss right there.
(5) We're bound to lose 1 B1G game in which we have no business losing. More often than not, teams lose one conference game in which they have no business losing (except for Championship years, which this clearly is not). One need not look any further than Purdue in '09 and Illinois in '07. It just happens. Thus, I believe we will lose 1 B1G game that we have no business losing (excluding Wisconsin, because I think that is a for sure "L").
So when you add it all up, I think we're easily looking at 4 losses this season. I'm not saying we're going to lose 4, but I certainly would not be surprised. I think 4 is the O/U. I think 3 is probably extremely likely, and I don't think 5 is that far of a reach [as some on here think it is]. I would argue there's an 85% chance we lose 3 games this season, and I think there's a 65% chance we lose 4.
I should have just stopped reading after the "scarlet and gray glasses" line. Then, I should have stopped after you identified Solomon Thomas as a "key defensive end." I did stop after the "abysmal linebacking core." Honestly, I'm not sure you're familiar with the roster. The WR corps is definitely an area of concern moreso than the group of LBs.
Your first two points, however, do have some bearing. How much, is obviously the unknown. An injury to Braxton is the only way this team loses five games, imo. The schedule is not that difficult and OSU has reloaded with talent. I would be disappointed if OSU was not 5-0 heading into Lincoln, Nebraska.