A little last minute, but hopefully we can get some bets


To clarify, when I say "involvement" in cautions for Robby Gordon, I mean either he bumped someone to start it, or actually was part of the wreck.

Those odds are tough. It's Daytona anyone can win.
12 cautions? I would say less than 6.

I have all my money on other events, but I don't see an appealing bet here.

ridiculous odds here.

First off, most of the events we've created have actually been paying way too high.
Half of the bets the first week were guaranteed payouts, haha

But anyway, here's the method behind the madness:

If I make "the field" a choice, it's too easy of money
There's scattered rain all around right now. One of those brushes over in the next couple hours and the race will start late.
Both restrictor plate races thus far have gone at least 2 G/W/C
They already had to work on the track patch once this week
Robby Gordon is like a pinball on these tracks.

Johnson has 1 victory in a points race at Daytona and it was not the summer race.
Jr. has 2 wins one in the spring and one in the summer the year his dad died.
The Busch brothers have 1 between them.

The odds are out of line for a plate race.

Remember this is for fun, Who cares how much everyone wins.
If the odds are so tight then people will lose interest if they are not winning.

I know it's for fun, but keeping it somewhat realistic makes it interesting as well. Gambling's no fun if you don't have to sit there and think about it some!
Plus, if it's all easy money (like a few of the baseball games where you were guaranteed to win if you put money on all of the choices), the rich ones will get richer that much faster (more to drop on the easy money) and then everyone else becomes disinterested because there's no competition left between people.

I'll make sure to do better with the driver odds next time, but I believe the prop bets are in line.

Not trying to bust on you. Just for future reference.
Prop bets are cool and should be long shots.
This is from BODOG.
They also have odds for finishing in the top 3.


Sprint Cup - Odds to win the Coke Zero 400 - Sat, July 3rd (7:30pm ET)
@ Dayton International Speedway
A.J. Allmendinger
50/1

Bobby Labonte
150/1

Brad Keselowski
50/1

Carl Edwards
25/1

Clint Bowyer
25/1

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
15/2

Dave Blaney
200/1

David Ragan
35/1

David Reutimann
30/1

David Stremme
200/1

Denny Hamlin
11/1

Elliott Sadler
75/1

Greg Biffle
35/1

J.J. Yeley
200/1

Jamie McMurray
15/1

Jeff Burton
18/1

Jeff Gordon
9/1

Jimmie Johnson
11/1

Joe Nemechek
150/1

Joey Logano
35/1

Juan Pablo Montoya
22/1

Kasey Kahne
20/1

Kevin Conway
200/1

Kevin Harvick
10/1

Kurt Busch
12/1

Kyle Busch
17/2

Marcos Ambrose
75/1

Mark Martin
25/1

Martin Truex Jr.
30/1

Matt Kenseth
25/1

Max Papis
200/1

Paul Menard
75/1

Reed Sorenson
75/1

Regan Smith
100/1

Robby Gordon
100/1

Robert Richardson Jr.
200/1

Ryan Newman
25/1

Sam Hornish Jr
60/1

Scott Speed
100/1

Steve Park
200/1

Tony Stewart
15/2

Travis Kvapil
200/1



This is from BODOG.
They also have odds for finishing in the top 3.

Dave Blaney is 200/1 and he didn't even make the race, lol

Those odds seem REALLY high.

If you picked Newman (someone fully capable of winning) and 20 other drivers, bet the same on them all, and Newman (or probably 15 of your 20 other drivers) wins, you'd still win money.

Even if you pick a favorite like Smoke, you can pick 7 other drivers to cover your ass and still come out a little ahead.

I'm not questioning you, I know those are the real odds, I'm just thinking out loud
I'll have it all better for next week, I promise.

oh...

no matter how good a driver is, it's still a 1 in 43 shot and there's so much luck involved, i would say nobody should ever been less than 5/1. 1/3 for JJ is unheard of.

I think I'm going to adjust the driver odds, since it only affects 1 person.

We're supposed to let them be once we set the event, but I fucked up pretty bad haha. Forgive me Jsutin. Rookie mistake

ts1227;410097 wrote:I think I'm going to adjust the driver odds, since it only affects 1 person.

We're supposed to let them be once we set the event, but I fucked up pretty bad haha. Forgive me Jsutin. Rookie mistake

Much better!
But I have all my money on other events.
This will generate more action. Good Job.

We've all had our share of rookie mistakes....I've not had one in about my last 10 threads and lotz seems to have figured it out as well on the odds



I thought ts had it down when he started though....welcome

Ironman92;410165 wrote:We've all had our share of rookie mistakes....I've not had one in about my last 10 threads and lotz seems to have figured it out as well on the odds



I thought ts had it down when he started though....welcome

I check the Vegas lines for the baseball ones and tweak them accordingly, then the one time I decide to wing it (this thread) I blow it, haha.

Here comes the rain right at the time bets closed...

Harvick wins the race


Conway was 10th going into the last restart!
9 cautions... short of the 12 I set, but just as far off as the 6 someone mentioned... haha
Only 1 G/W/C, fewest of any plate race.
Patch held up
Robby kept it clean for once
Race delayed 1.5 hours by weather
Busch brothers kept on getting involved in wrecks (Kurt somehow limped it home in 7th)