Could Betelguese go Supernova soon?

Home Archive Serious Business Could Betelguese go Supernova soon?
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Mooney44Cards

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May 31, 2010 9:40 PM
Let me backtrack for a moment to explain to those who are not familiar with Astronomy.

Meet Orion:


Possibly the most recognizable constellation in the sky, Orion contains one of the largest stars in the known universe: Betelguese. (pronounced like Beetlejuice, or Beetlejuize) Thats it on Orion's right shoulder, the yellowish-orange one. Its the 9th brightest star in the night sky.

Why is it so bright? Betelguese is a red supergiant. Its huge. If you put it smack dab in the middle of our solar system, it would extend out to Saturn's orbit. Supergiants tend to run hotter due to increased mass and gravitational pressure and therefore, despite being comprised of much much much more fuel (hydrogen) than smaller stars, they tend to have a much shorter lifespan because they burn through their supply of fuel quicker. So, while Betelguese is relatively young in star-years (about 8.5 million years old) it is actually VERY old compared to most other supergiants which tend to burn through their supply of hydrogen in roughly 1 million years. When a star has exhausted its supply of hydrogen, it moves on to heavier elements such as helium, until it begins to finally accumulate iron in its core, and nuclear fusion stops. As soon as nuclear fusion stops, the star goes through a state of gravitational collapse and the star explodes, shedding off its outer layers in a gigantic glowing blob in the sky. In other words, the star goes "supernova".

Why now?Scientists have noted that, since 1993, Betelguese has shrunk about 15%, and is increasing its shrink rate. In fact, current observations from the Mauna Kea observatory suggest that Betelguese is collapsing at such a rate (around 450-470mph), that the star is no longer round, but is in fact oval-shaped (think smushed). This is due to the fact that since stars rotate (and rotate faster at the equator than at the poles due to angular momentum) the collapse is happening faster at the polar axis than at the equatorial axis, creating the oval shape.

What does this mean? Well it means that although scientists have always pointed to Betelguese as a candidate for supernova in our observable universe, it was always considered to be happening in roughly the next 1,000 years or so. This new evidence suggests that it may be much sooner than that, possibly within months or years.

What will it look like? Well the last supernova observable by the naked eye was in the year 1054. The Crab Supernova, as it is called, was visible during daylight hours for 23 days, and observable in the night sky for 653 days. And THAT supernova was about 6000 light years away. THIS one would be about 600. Think twice as bright as a full moon, so areas where Betelguese is visible at night would have 24 hours of light for at least a few weeks, and this is something we'd be able to see at night for a few years.

"So what?" you may say. Well, being as this only happens once in a millennium, it would certainly be something to be able to say you were there for. And, god forbid it happens in 2012.....we may just see the crazies come out of the woodwork and claim it as more proof that the world is ending!
May 31, 2010 9:40pm
hoops23's avatar

hoops23

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May 31, 2010 9:50 PM
Pretty neat stuff Mooney. Always had a big interest in Astronomy. I knew this star was expected to go Super Nova "soon" relative to "space years", but didn't know it could happen this soon.

Would be interesting to see what happened if it did happen within our lifetimes.
May 31, 2010 9:50pm
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karen lotz

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May 31, 2010 9:51 PM
Yes
May 31, 2010 9:51pm
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Jughead

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May 31, 2010 10:03 PM
I love this kind of stuff...I used to play space simulations all the time and have always been interested in the cosmos. I also used to watch some show on PBS that used to end the daily broadcast, something along the line of StarGazer (???) and watch NOVA all the time.
May 31, 2010 10:03pm
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justincredible

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May 31, 2010 10:04 PM
This would definitely be something cool to see. Other than the few weeks of light, it wouldn't have any sort of impact on the Earth would it?
May 31, 2010 10:04pm
Mooney44Cards's avatar

Mooney44Cards

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May 31, 2010 10:14 PM
justincredible;374855 wrote:This would definitely be something cool to see. Other than the few weeks of light, it wouldn't have any sort of impact on the Earth would it?

Definitely not. The biggest threat to earth from a supernova would be gamma rays, which are expelled during the supernova, but we're much too far away for it to affect us really. In fact, there are virtually no stars close enough to our solar system to hurt us that are massive enough to go supernova.

Also, if you're starting up your office pools, you'd better hope it explodes in the winter, as Orion isn't visible in the northern hemisphere during the summer months!
May 31, 2010 10:14pm
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Cleveland Buck

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May 31, 2010 10:30 PM
Actually, assuming we are correct in what we know about gamma ray bursts, the burst goes out from the poles, and we are (supposedly) not lined up with Betelguese's poles, which is what saves our asses. If we happen to be lined up with the poles, we are close enough that a gamma ray burst could wipe out almost all life on earth.
May 31, 2010 10:30pm
Mooney44Cards's avatar

Mooney44Cards

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May 31, 2010 10:40 PM
Cleveland Buck;374872 wrote:Actually, assuming we are correct in what we know about gamma ray bursts, the burst goes out from the poles, and we are (supposedly) not lined up with Betelguese's poles, which is what saves our asses. If we happen to be lined up with the poles, we are close enough that a gamma ray burst could wipe out almost all life on earth.

Not quite true. Given your scenario were going to happen, all we'd end up with is a depleted ozone layer, which would harm us indirectly, not directly. A gamma ray burst only occurs in a Type I supernova event. This would be a Type II supernova (Betelguese is not a white dwarf, nor a binary system). The gamma rays that would hit earth from a Type II supernova 600 light years away would be less than what we get from the sun on a daily basis.
May 31, 2010 10:40pm
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tk421

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May 31, 2010 10:47 PM
If this is that close to going nova, it's already happened. We just haven't seen it yet. In fact, if we would be able to see it in a couple years, it would have gone nova in the late 1300s or early 1400s.

Although this star isn't supposed to have any gamma ray bursts that effect Earth, it's kind of humbling to know that there could be a lethal burst heading our way, and we wouldn't know about it until it pretty much hit us.
May 31, 2010 10:47pm
Curly J's avatar

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May 31, 2010 11:05 PM
tk421;374883 wrote:If this is that close to going nova, it's already happened. We just haven't seen it yet. In fact, if we would be able to see it in a couple years, it would have gone nova in the late 1300s or early 1400s.

That was going to be my question, was how long would it take for us to see it. I always remember every time we look out to the night sky we are looking into the past. I mean the speed of light is fast but, how long would it take for it to reach the Earth from Orion.
May 31, 2010 11:05pm
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May 31, 2010 11:11 PM
Curly J;374895 wrote:That was going to be my question, was how long would it take for us to see it. I always remember every time we look out to the night sky we are looking into the past. I mean the speed of light is fast but, how long would it take for it to reach the Earth from Orion.

This particular star is around 640 lys. So, 640 years, meaning that unless we will not see this go nova until after 2600, it's already happened. It's pretty cool when you think about it. I'm no Astronomer but I wish I could see how our galaxy really looks right now, instead of how it looked however long ago the light was sent.
May 31, 2010 11:11pm
Mooney44Cards's avatar

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Jun 1, 2010 12:39 AM
Oh man, you guys are really getting into semantics here. Remember there is no "now". Relativity says it is impossible to travel faster than the speed of light, so to say if we saw it "now" it happened 600 years ago is meaningless. It is only true in a metaphoric way. Since the speed of light is the speed of information, there is only what we can observe and nothing else. So if we see it up in the sky now, it is happening now.
Jun 1, 2010 12:39am
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hoops23

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Jun 1, 2010 12:41 AM
So amazingly mind blowing.
Jun 1, 2010 12:41am
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hasbeen

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Jun 1, 2010 12:59 AM
What parts of Earth would be lit up 24/7?
Jun 1, 2010 12:59am
tk421's avatar

tk421

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Jun 1, 2010 1:03 AM
Mooney44Cards;375018 wrote:Oh man, you guys are really getting into semantics here. Remember there is no "now". Relativity says it is impossible to travel faster than the speed of light, so to say if we saw it "now" it happened 600 years ago is meaningless. It is only true in a metaphoric way. Since the speed of light is the speed of information, there is only what we can observe and nothing else. So if we see it up in the sky now, it is happening now.

It may be happening now from Earth's point of view, but that's not true for the rest of the universe. To say that some stellar phenomena that we observe is happening now when it occurred in some cases before this planet was formed just isn't true. In this case, 600 years may be minor, but other objects much farther away certainly aren't happening "now".
Jun 1, 2010 1:03am
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Mooney44Cards

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Jun 1, 2010 1:06 AM
tk421;375038 wrote:It may be happening now from Earth's point of view, but that's not true for the rest of the universe. To say that some stellar phenomena that we observe is happening now when it occurred in some cases before this planet was formed just isn't true. In this case, 600 years may be minor, but other objects much farther away certainly aren't happening "now".

Hence the term "relativity". NOW is only a true statement based on one given place in the universe. Whatever is happening "now" is only happening "now" from our relative place in the universe. To anyone light years away, it hasn't happened yet.

Being that we all live on earth, and none of us will ever live anywhere that is outside of this relative place in the universe, there is only one "now" for us. And to try to discuss "now" relative to some other point in the universe is, like I said in the last post, just semantics.
Jun 1, 2010 1:06am
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Mooney44Cards

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Jun 1, 2010 1:09 AM
pnhasbeen;375035 wrote:What parts of Earth would be lit up 24/7?

It depends on what time of year it is. The northern hemisphere can view Orion at night only during the winter months. So we would have some bright nights in the winter months. Keep in mind it wouldn't be like "daylight" 24/7. You would however, be able to see outside at night, on a clear night especially. The moon is 1/500,000th the brightness of the sun, so saying its twice as bright as a full moon doesn't necessarily make it daylight. Just a very bright night.
Jun 1, 2010 1:09am
hasbeen's avatar

hasbeen

Excuse me, Flo?

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Jun 1, 2010 1:11 AM
If there was snow on the ground, then it'd be very, very bright.
Jun 1, 2010 1:11am
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Curly J

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Jun 1, 2010 1:15 AM
Mooney44Cards;375018 wrote:Oh man, you guys are really getting into semantics here. Remember there is no "now". Relativity says it is impossible to travel faster than the speed of light, so to say if we saw it "now" it happened 600 years ago is meaningless. It is only true in a metaphoric way. Since the speed of light is the speed of information, there is only what we can observe and nothing else. So if we see it up in the sky now, it is happening now.
As far as the Speed of Light being the Speed of Information, I can go for that. I can also tell you back in the 40's many thought the Speed of Sound was considered impassable. A virtual Brick wall in the sky.

Ok, if the sun blows up how long before we know it occurred? I guess the instance the Earth goes up or did it explode earlier then just reached us? How long does it take for the light from the sun to reach the Earth??? Instantaneous?

I mean I've seen several videos of bombs exploding and saw the shock waves. It didn't occur everywhere at the exact same moment.
Jun 1, 2010 1:15am
tk421's avatar

tk421

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Jun 1, 2010 1:17 AM
Curly J;375046 wrote:As far as the Speed of Light being the Speed of Information, I can go for that. I can also tell you back in the 40's many thought the Speed of Sound was considered impassable. A virtual Brick wall in the sky.

Ok, if the sun blows up how long before we know it occurred? I guess the instance the Earth goes up or did it explode earlier then just reached us? How long does it take for the light from the sun to reach the Earth??? Instantaneous?

I mean I've seen several videos of bombs exploding and saw the shock waves. It didn't occur everywhere at the exact same moment.

8 minutes. So, you should live your life like it's the last day, because one day it just might be and you'd never know it. :D
Jun 1, 2010 1:17am
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Mooney44Cards

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Jun 1, 2010 1:21 AM
Curly J;375046 wrote:As far as the Speed of Light being the Speed of Information, I can go for that. I can also tell you back in the 40's many thought the Speed of Sound was considered impassable. A virtual Brick wall in the sky.

Ok, if the sun blows up how long before we know it occurred? I guess the instance the Earth goes up or did it explode earlier then just reached us? How long does it take for the light from the sun to reach the Earth??? Instantaneous?

I mean I've seen several videos of bombs exploding and saw the shock waves. It didn't occur everywhere at the exact same moment.


Jun 1, 2010 1:21am
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SQ_Crazies

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Jun 1, 2010 1:25 AM
Yeah, if it happened 600 years ago then when we see it it ISN'T happening now. That's arrogant to say. Relativity should make you far less arrogant. There could be life that has already seen it, life that has been effected by it--so the word "now" isn't really correct.
Jun 1, 2010 1:25am
Curly J's avatar

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Jun 1, 2010 1:33 AM
Mooney44Cards;375039 wrote:Hence the term "relativity". NOW is only a true statement based on one given place in the universe. Whatever is happening "now" is only happening "now" from our relative place in the universe. To anyone light years away, it hasn't happened yet.

Being that we all live on earth, and none of us will ever live anywhere that is outside of this relative place in the universe, there is only one "now" for us. And to try to discuss "now" relative to some other point in the universe is, like I said in the last post, just semantics.

"relativity"...There is something I understand. I think. Is that like Relative Bearing, meaning how North, South, East, and West are relative to you by which way I facing. (because in Relative Bearing which ever way you face is always north). Compared to True Bearing which North is always consistent. I guess those are just semantics too.

Ok pick one line and say Apple to Oranges, but Speed of Sound is measurable. Is the speed of light not ???
Jun 1, 2010 1:33am
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Glory Days

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Jun 1, 2010 1:38 AM
This is way too deep of a conversation for the OC. i think we can all just agree that for us here on earth, it is happening now.
Jun 1, 2010 1:38am
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Jun 1, 2010 1:46 AM
Glory Days;375056 wrote:This is way too deep of a conversation for the OC. i think we can all just agree that for us here on earth, it is happening now.
FU Glory Days !!! I'm rejecting your reality and substituting my own !!! ;)
Jun 1, 2010 1:46am