http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100121

The way he calculates it

1. Determine the player's current annual production in the given category.

2. Estimate how many seasons' worth of that production remains.

3. Multiply the first two answers to estimate how many points we can expect the player to score in the rest of his career.

4. Compare that answer to the amount needed for the record and derive a percentage accordingly.



Right now Melo has a 10.8% chance of beating Kareems record
Durant has a 15.8% chance
Lebron has a 33.5% chance
Kobe has a 44.9% chance

A thing to take note kobe had a 30.7% chance two years ago. Hollinger expected his #'s to drop a little bit going into his 30's. If Durant can keep his current #'s up, he will have the best chance at it.

LeBron should get points for having 2+ more assists than Kobe and 4+ more than Durant for career averages.

LeBron doesn't have that good of a chance to break the record in my estimation. Because of his size and style of play his body is going to start to break down a few years into his 30's. He will have to completely change his style of play from being arguably the best slasher in the history of the NBA to being a guy who does the majority of his damage from the mid post down. If he applies himself he can do absolutely anything he wants on a basketball court and that evolution in his game is still in play, just a question of making it happen or not.

3reppom wrote: LeBron doesn't have that good of a chance to break the record in my estimation. Because of his size and style of play his body is going to start to break down a few years into his 30's. He will have to completely change his style of play from being arguably the best slasher in the history of the NBA to being a guy who does the majority of his damage from the mid post down. If he applies himself he can do absolutely anything he wants on a basketball court and that evolution in his game is still in play, just a question of making it happen or not.

Agreed. I saw that with Karl Malone in the 90's. I also have to wonder if Kobe and LeBron play long enough to be able to top Kareem's number. I mean, those guys have made so much money in their careers and have had so much success on the court. They may simply decide to hang them up by age 35 when they have around 18 years in the league.