WhatIfSports NFL Divisional round simulations

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justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 12, 2010 11:07 PM
The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
WhatIfSports.com

<table class="btb_info">
<tr class="toprow"><th colspan="4"><div class="main_head"><span class="titleleft"></span><span class="title">NFL Divisional Playoffs</span><span class="titleright"></span></span></th></tr>
<tr class="lowrow"><th>Matchup</th><th class="text_center">Win%</th><th class="text_center">Avg Score</th><th class="text_center"></th></tr>
<tr class="even"><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td class="text_center">16.1</td><td class="text_center">20</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100116018">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ <strong>New Orleans Saints</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>83.9</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>36</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=New Orleans Saints&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Arizona Cardinals">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd"><td><strong>Dallas Cowboys</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>52.9</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>26</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100117016">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Minnesota Vikings</td><td class="text_center">47.1</td><td class="text_center">25</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Minnesota Vikings&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Dallas Cowboys">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
<tr class="even"><td><strong>Baltimore Ravens</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>58.2</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>23</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100116011">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Indianapolis Colts</td><td class="text_center">41.8</td><td class="text_center">22</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Indianapolis Colts&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Baltimore Ravens">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd"><td><strong>New York Jets</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>70.3</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>24</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100117024">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ San Diego Chargers</td><td class="text_center">29.7</td><td class="text_center">19</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=San Diego Chargers&vSeason=2009&vTeam=New York Jets">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
</table>

They picked 3/4 last week (missed GB/Ari).
Jan 12, 2010 11:07pm
M

mhs95_06

Senior Member

8,167 posts
Jan 12, 2010 11:20 PM
How close did they say last week the GB/Ariz game was going to be?
Jan 12, 2010 11:20pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 12, 2010 11:40 PM
26-22 Green Bay with Green Bay winning 65.2% of the time.
Jan 12, 2010 11:40pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 12, 2010 11:41 PM
<table class="btb_info">
<tr class="toprow"><th colspan="4"><div class="main_head"><span class="titleleft"></span><span class="title">NFL Wild Card Week</span><span class="titleright"></span></span></th></tr>
<tr class="lowrow"><th>Matchup</th><th class="text_center">Win%</th><th class="text_center">Avg Score</th><th class="text_center"></th></tr>
<tr class="even"><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td class="text_center">37.0</td><td class="text_center">17</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100109006">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ <strong>Dallas Cowboys</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>63.0</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>23</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Dallas Cowboys&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Philadelphia Eagles">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd"><td><strong>Baltimore Ravens</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>59.1</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>23</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100110017">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ New England Patriots</td><td class="text_center">40.9</td><td class="text_center">21</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=New England Patriots&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Baltimore Ravens">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
<tr class="even"><td><strong>Green Bay Packers</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>65.2</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>26</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100110022">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Arizona Cardinals</td><td class="text_center">34.8</td><td class="text_center">22</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Arizona Cardinals&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Green Bay Packers">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd"><td><strong>New York Jets</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>68.0</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>18</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100109004">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Cincinnati Bengals</td><td class="text_center">32.0</td><td class="text_center">14</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Cincinnati Bengals&vSeason=2009&vTeam=New York Jets">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
</table>
Jan 12, 2010 11:41pm
I

icskins

Senior Member

174 posts
Jan 12, 2010 11:43 PM
It does seem that they favor close games. Have you looked at them through the year? Have they predicted any blowouts?
Jan 12, 2010 11:43pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 12, 2010 11:45 PM
icskins wrote: It does seem that they favor close games. Have you looked at them through the year? Have they predicted any blowouts?
Overall Performance (through 1/11/10)
Overall Winning Percentage: 69.9%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 58.1%*
Game of the Week: 13-4
ATS Lock of the Week: 12-5
Upset of the Week: 7-10
NOTE: Overall performance does NOT include playoffs performance

http://whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2009NFLSEASON
Jan 12, 2010 11:45pm
hoops23's avatar

hoops23

Senior Member

15,696 posts
Jan 13, 2010 2:39 AM
Whatifsports is pretty accurate when it comes to predicting a winner...

I think they had a 5 or 6 year run at picking the Super Bowl winner..

They also have some pretty sweet games.
Jan 13, 2010 2:39am
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Jan 13, 2010 6:28 AM
I can't believe NO wins 80%+ and ARI only averages 20.

And I really can't see NYJ beating SD. Sanchez won't be able to put together 2 good playoff games, I don't think.

Don't disagree with the BAL prediction at all. Just surprised it'd pick them (and significantly at 58%) over a team that could have probably gone undefeated.
Jan 13, 2010 6:28am
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 13, 2010 8:57 AM
Jets shouldn't need to rely on Sanchez too much in this game. He'll probably only get 10-15 attempts as I don't see San Diego stopping the Jets running game. If San Diego jumps out to a big lead the Jets are likely screwed, but if they can keep it close and control the clock I like their chances.
Jan 13, 2010 8:57am
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

Administrator

49,363 posts
Jan 13, 2010 10:27 PM
Did they factor in the NFL loving Manning?
Jan 13, 2010 10:27pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Jan 13, 2010 11:04 PM
justincredible wrote: Jets shouldn't need to rely on Sanchez too much in this game. He'll probably only get 10-15 attempts as I don't see San Diego stopping the Jets running game. If San Diego jumps out to a big lead the Jets are likely screwed, but if they can keep it close and control the clock I like their chances.
Yeah, but if he isn't effective in those 15 or so attempts, it's going to be tough to put points on the board and SD WILL put points on the board.

Steeler fans know a one-dimensional ground game does not get it done without efficient passing.
Jan 13, 2010 11:04pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 19, 2010 5:01 PM
<table class="btb_info">
<tr class="toprow"><th colspan="4"><div class="main_head"><span class="titleleft"></span><span class="title">NFL Conference Championships</span><span class="titleright"></span></span></th></tr>
<tr class="lowrow"><th>Matchup</th><th class="text_center">Win%</th><th class="text_center">Avg Score</th><th class="text_center"></th></tr>
<tr class="even"><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td class="text_center">45.8</td><td class="text_center">26</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100124018">Boxscore</a></td></tr>

<tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ <strong>New Orleans Saints</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>54.2</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>29</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=New Orleans Saints&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Minnesota Vikings">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd"><td><strong>New York Jets</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>52.9</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>22</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100124011">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
<tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Indianapolis Colts</td><td class="text_center">47.1</td><td class="text_center">21</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Indianapolis Colts&vSeason=2009&vTeam=New York Jets">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>

</table>
Jan 19, 2010 5:01pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 19, 2010 5:01 PM
The Jets/Saints SB that the computers predicted when the playoffs started is still alive.
Jan 19, 2010 5:01pm
MrPoke's avatar

MrPoke

Senior Member

348 posts
Jan 19, 2010 11:39 PM
I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
Jan 19, 2010 11:39pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 19, 2010 11:44 PM
MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
Jan 19, 2010 11:44pm
Laley23's avatar

Laley23

GOAT

29,506 posts
Jan 19, 2010 11:54 PM
justincredible wrote:
MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
Guys should bet 12 dollars. Then the winner can get out of this shit site and go pay for a good, not so poorly run site. :)
Jan 19, 2010 11:54pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 20, 2010 8:42 AM
Laley23 wrote:
justincredible wrote:
MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
Guys should bet 12 dollars. Then the winner can get out of this shit site and go pay for a good, not so poorly run site. :)
You shut up, you! :)
Jan 20, 2010 8:42am
MrPoke's avatar

MrPoke

Senior Member

348 posts
Jan 20, 2010 1:41 PM
justincredible wrote:
MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
$13 dollars, then I can pay JJ and buy 100 sour patch kids.
Jan 20, 2010 1:41pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Jan 20, 2010 1:49 PM
MrPoke wrote:
justincredible wrote:
MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
$13 dollars, then I can pay JJ and buy 100 sour patch kids.
Scratch that bet. I'll just take the money and buy myself 1300 swedish fish.
Jan 20, 2010 1:49pm