TBone14;1666533 wrote:USC, Syracuse, Wyoming, Tex/Kst Under, gtech, Miss st., Nevada, Wash St team total Over, Ohio State, Virginia.
This weekend just proved why it is so tough to win long term. You have to be disciplined and manage your money or you will go broke. The goal is 55-58%. Just in the games I posted, look at the randomness at the finishes. You can't predict or handicap some of this stuff.
USC- Guy steps out of bounds a yard short of a 1st down on a 4th and 2. Should have easily had it and USC kneels on the win. Instead, Utah marches down the field and wins at the gun.
Syracuse- Covered from start to finish.
Wyoming- Getting drilled the whole game. Had +18.5 Down 45-17 with 7 minutes left. Wyoming hits a TD to get it to 45-24 and then with 20 seconds left (starters still in), they hit a 32 yarder for a TD to backdoor the cover 45-31. No business covering.
Tex/Kst Under- 23 points. A rare easy winner.
GTech- Aided by a lot of Pitt fumbles early but still won by 28.
Miss St- Takes an onside kick to the house to get it to 14 and a push for me.
Nevada- Dominate 2nd half. Good winner.
Washington St. Team total Over 35.5- 16 points through 3 quarters. They score 21 points in the 4th...including a TD with 16 seconds left to put it over. Would have been impossible without Arizona taking an onside kick to the house to give Wash. St another possession instead of Zona running clock.
Ohio State- Up 17-0. Looking like a laugher. Pick 6 changes the game and they almost lose.
Virginia- Outright loser.
So 6-3-1 on those. Benefited from 2 onside kick returns to the house. I ended up playing some other games that I didn't post and ended up having a losing day.
And then in the NFL.
Ravens/Bengals
Vikings/Bucs
Eagles/Cardinals
3 games where the losing team feels like they should have won but yet the winning team didn't really get too lucky. Total coinflips. You could convince me that any of those 6 teams were the right side and any of them were the wrong side. These games swing on single plays...the bounce of a fumble that let's it go out of bounce or right back into the offense's hands as oppose to being picked up by the defense. Two batted balls that fall right into the Saints defense's arms as opposed to falling harmlessly to the turf. Could have been 10-14 more points for the Packers.
It's why when people ask me, "Who are the locks this weekend?" I tell them, "There is no such thing. These are plays I am making hoping to win 55-58% of them." If I hear somebody use the word lock, I know they haven't been in the game long or don't understand.
Morale of the story. Manage your money. If you like a game a little more than usual...take a shot. Put double your normal bet on it. If you are a $20 bettor and really like a game...put 50 on it. Don't be dumb. There are no locks.
Sorry for the manifesto. I was out drinking with some guys yesterday and I watched a guy lose entirely too much money on the Colts. He thought it was a 'lock'. Now, I liked the Colts. I put a little more than normal on it but this is a guy who bets 50-100 a game and lost like a dime on the Colts. Just stupid.
