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Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, 2/21 - Duke a #1 seed

Home ▸ Archive ▸ College Sports ▸ Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, 2/21 - Duke a #1 seed
Leonardo's avatar

Leonardo

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Feb 21, 2011 1:49 PM
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Sweet 16 matchups if seeds held:
(1) Ohio State vs. (4) Villanova
(2) San Diego State vs. (3) Notre Dame

(1) Texas vs. (4) Connecticut
(2) BYU vs. (3) Wisconsin

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (4) North Carolina
(2) Purdue vs. (3) Florida

(1) Duke vs. (4) Louisville
(2) Kansas vs. (3) Georgetown


Play-in games:
Butler vs. Memphis for #11 seed vs. (6) St. John's
Boston College vs. Gonzaga for #12 seed vs. (5) Kentucky


Number of teams from each "big" conference:
Big East: 11
Big 10: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
ACC: 5
Pac-10: 3


Various notes:
-Lunardi has Michigan State as an #11 seed, facing Texas A&M in the first round
-Lunardi has George Mason as a #7 seed, facing Alabama in the first round; potentially Kansas in the second round
-Lunardi has at least two Big East teams in each region
-Lunardi has the highest Pac-10 team as Arizona, a #5 seed
Feb 21, 2011 1:49pm
Mulva's avatar

Mulva

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Feb 21, 2011 1:55 PM
A don't really understand how he has a play-in game for an 11 seed, and then Minnesota gets in as an at-large as a 12 seed. Logic would seem to dictate that the last 4 in should be seeded lower than an at-large that isn't being forced to play its way in.
Feb 21, 2011 1:55pm
wildcats20's avatar

wildcats20

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Feb 21, 2011 1:59 PM
A don't really understand how he has a play-in game for an 11 seed, and then Minnesota gets in as an at-large as a 12 seed. Logic would seem to dictate that the last 4 in should be seeded lower than an at-large that isn't being forced to play its way in.
It's the way the tournament is going to be set up. It's not him.
Feb 21, 2011 1:59pm
Mulva's avatar

Mulva

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Feb 21, 2011 2:04 PM
wildcats20;685938 wrote:It's the way the tournament is going to be set up. It's not him.

The one's the I follow (bracketography and bracketology 101) haven't had it like that. They either have both play-in games on the 12 line, or one playing for a 12 and the other for a 13. Either way, neither has any at-large bids getting lower seeds than the teams in the play-in games.
Feb 21, 2011 2:04pm
G

georgemc80

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Feb 21, 2011 6:21 PM
I like those sweet 16 matchups a lot
Feb 21, 2011 6:21pm
wildcats20's avatar

wildcats20

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Feb 21, 2011 6:32 PM
Mulva;685952 wrote:The one's the I follow (bracketography and bracketology 101) haven't had it like that. They either have both play-in games on the 12 line, or one playing for a 12 and the other for a 13. Either way, neither has any at-large bids getting lower seeds than the teams in the play-in games.

This is from the ESPN article about the expansion, posted last July.
This is the first time the last four at-large teams will be revealed publicly. Traditionally, the at-large teams are scattered throughout the seeding process, rarely going past No. 12, making it relatively easy to identify them. Yet the committee now will formally announce the last at-large teams by putting them in the first round.

Guerrero and Shaheen said the last four at-large teams would be put on the seed line the committee decided they earned. So, this could mean that two could be considered No. 12 seeds playing for the right to play a No. 5 and two could be No. 11s vying to play a No. 6 in the second round.

In its news release, the NCAA listed the 10th seed as a possible destination for the last at-large teams, something that has occurred in past years. It is unlikely that the committee will have one team seeded 10th, 11th or 12th to avoid having teams seeded differently playing in a First Four game.
Here are the "First Four" Games, according to Joe.
MARCH 15: SOUTHLAND/McNeese State vs. SWAC/Texas Southern (EAST, No. 16)
MARCH 15: Boston College vs. Gonzaga (East, No. 12)
MARCH 16: SUN BELT/Fla. Atlantic vs. MEAC/Bethune-Cookman (SOUTHWEST, No. 16)
MARCH 16: Memphis vs. Butler (West, No. 11)

Last 4 in being...
Memphis
Butler
Boston College
Gonzaga
Feb 21, 2011 6:32pm
B

Big Gain

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2,073 posts
Feb 21, 2011 9:46 PM
START THE TOURNAMENT TODAY......I don't think Ohio State could get a much better draw.
Feb 21, 2011 9:46pm
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Laley23

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Feb 21, 2011 10:05 PM
The last 4 at large teams are playing in the play-in games. I honestly think Lunardi made a mistake. You cant have an at large "earn" and 11 seed and then place someone as a 12. It makes no sense.
Feb 21, 2011 10:05pm
SportsAndLady's avatar

SportsAndLady

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Feb 21, 2011 10:09 PM
God that bracket would suck for KU...I would not feel comfortable playing George Mason in the second round lol
Feb 21, 2011 10:09pm
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CinciX12

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Feb 21, 2011 11:36 PM
SportsAndLady;686682 wrote:God that bracket would suck for KU...I would not feel comfortable playing George Mason in the second round lol

The 2nd round in Tulsa. Wouldn't that be a huge advantage for KU? I can't imagine George Mason travels well.
Feb 21, 2011 11:36pm
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CinciX12

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Feb 21, 2011 11:40 PM
Arizona as a 5 seed proves my point about their ranking. But then again, Lunardi doesn't get seeding right.
Feb 21, 2011 11:40pm
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SportsAndLady

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Feb 21, 2011 11:58 PM
1) Yes, it'd be a huge KU crowd, but that didn't really help KU last year. When you think that the other 2 teams will have games either before or after your game they will be there watching your gmae...they're gonna root for the upset, obviously.

2) Lunardi is an idiot if he thinks Arizona would be a 5 seed right now...isnt that what his bracketology is? How it would look right now? Even if he did do bracketology as a prediction, Arizona is a top 10 team with very few challenging games remaining, they are a 3 seed at the very worst.
Feb 21, 2011 11:58pm
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dave

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Feb 22, 2011 3:10 AM
Lunardi is assuming Zona loses at UCLA this week. They are 15th in RPI so it's hard to see them dropping out of the top 16.
Feb 22, 2011 3:10am
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CinciX12

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Feb 22, 2011 12:23 PM
Arizona has no wins though. I think it is a reflection of Joe thinking they don't deserve a high seed. Which I would certainly agree with. They just now got their first top 50 RPI win this past weekend against Washington, at home.
Feb 22, 2011 12:23pm
SportsAndLady's avatar

SportsAndLady

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Feb 22, 2011 12:46 PM
CinciX12;687215 wrote:Arizona has no wins though. I think it is a reflection of Joe thinking they don't deserve a high seed. Which I would certainly agree with. They just now got their first top 50 RPI win this past weekend against Washington, at home.

Yes they have no good wins. But they only have 1 bad loss, are #15 in the RPI, and are 23-4. If Joe thinks they don't deserve a high seed, fine. But don't say your brackets are based on where the tourney would be right now and then put Arizona a 5 seed because they haven't beaten a great team. Everyone knows the committee looks at the RPI very highly, and a 23-4 record in a major conference with a 15 RPI is a 2 seed at worst.
Feb 22, 2011 12:46pm
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CinciX12

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Feb 22, 2011 12:49 PM
SportsAndLady;687238 wrote:Yes they have no good wins. But they only have 1 bad loss, are #15 in the RPI, and are 23-4. If Joe thinks they don't deserve a high seed, fine. But don't say your brackets are based on where the tourney would be right now and then put Arizona a 5 seed because they haven't beaten a great team. Everyone knows the committee looks at the RPI very highly, and a 23-4 record in a major conference with a 15 RPI is a 2 seed at worst.

Our AD, who is on the committee, has said repeatedly that RPI isn't looked at nearly as much as everyone thinks.
Feb 22, 2011 12:49pm
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georgemc80

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Feb 22, 2011 1:15 PM
Arizona as a 2 seed would be a joke and there are 3 and 15 seeds praying Arizona is a 2 in their bracket.
Feb 22, 2011 1:15pm
SportsAndLady's avatar

SportsAndLady

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Feb 22, 2011 1:17 PM
CinciX12;687242 wrote:Our AD, who is on the committee, has said repeatedly that RPI isn't looked at nearly as much as everyone thinks.

I mean if that's true then Arizona won't be that high. But who is Arizona going to lose to the rest of the year? Their hardest game is a road game at UCLA.
Feb 22, 2011 1:17pm
CinciX12's avatar

CinciX12

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Feb 22, 2011 2:25 PM
I personally don't even understand why he says it. He said something like they don't look at RPI very much at all, if at all, and then says that instead they look at the overall body of work. Correct me if I'm wrong but that is the RPI's main function right? So who knows.

He is in charge of looking at the Big East though, so whatever method he deems fit to not allow 11 Big East teams in I am in favor of.
Feb 22, 2011 2:25pm
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Cleveland Buck

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Feb 22, 2011 2:34 PM
Everyone who talks about the process says that they don't use the RPI to evaluate individual teams, they use it to evaluate the schedule the team played and the resume they put together. Meaning they don't care if a team is 15 in the RPI, they care about how many top 25, top 50, top 100 RPI teams they beat and where they beat them.
Feb 22, 2011 2:34pm
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CinciX12

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Feb 22, 2011 2:40 PM
Wouldn't that mean that RPI is very important then? If other team's RPI are used in determining how good you are, doesn't your's matter too?
Feb 22, 2011 2:40pm
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Laley23

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Feb 22, 2011 2:48 PM
CinciX12;687357 wrote:Wouldn't that mean that RPI is very important then? If other team's RPI are used in determining how good you are, doesn't your's matter too?

Kind of....but a team like BYU has a skyrocket RPI because they win all the time. Now, if you look at how many top 25 or even 50 RPI teams they have even played, I think it would be low.
Feb 22, 2011 2:48pm
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Cleveland Buck

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Feb 22, 2011 3:01 PM
CinciX12;687357 wrote:Wouldn't that mean that RPI is very important then? If other team's RPI are used in determining how good you are, doesn't your's matter too?

You would think so, but apparently it doesn't matter as much. I guess they can use the RPI as a guideline to say if you beat X number of top 50 or top 100 teams, then you must have beaten some pretty good teams, but they don't necessarily believe that #1 in the RPI is the best team or #2 is the second best team.
Feb 22, 2011 3:01pm
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TBone14

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Feb 22, 2011 3:30 PM
Dangerous 4 seeds. North Carolina, Villanova, UConn, and Louisville. This tournament is going to be wide open.
Feb 22, 2011 3:30pm