posted by gut
I was just thinking today "how would you even attach a fundamental value to BTC"....and oddly enough there was an economic forum in my inbox discussing just that.
Most said it was fundamentally worthless, while a few felt it's fundamental value would be a "convenience fee" on the total value of actual transactions.
I called $9000 early in the year not long ago, but truthfully I have no idea what it should be or how low it can go. I could have [and would have] easily said there's no reason or understanding to be $1200 a year ago. Hell, even if it were worth $2k and you started dollar cost averaging down to that, you'd still have lost like 60% on the way down to that!
Futures are not exactly the best (or smartest) way to short something. I DO think it would be a smart play, if you could, to short the 2-3 most popular and go long the 2-3 next most popular. That actually sounds like a pretty dumb idea reading it after I type it out, but the market is that crazy and irrational. Basically my theory is the suckers will continue to flock to the names they see in the news, while the "smart" money rotates into lesser known names....wash, rinse, repeat
Generally, I agree with that last idea, which is actually reflected by my current portfolio (other than a small amount of Ethereum I keep for conversion fees, the most well-known coin I own is Monero). No Bitcoin. No Ripple. No Litecoin. Nothing like that.
IF the coin is rooted in a blockchain that is linked to a ledger that is ... or will be ... valuable within the market, then perhaps there's at least a tangible variable to establish an ever-so-slightly more objective value. Even there, you'd have to determine the value of the ledger system as a part of the whole of the respective industry, which sounds like solving a 1000-piece puzzle with only 500 pieces, but it would be more than just the value of the coin's usage as a currency.
Ultimately, the same thing that has happened before will happen this time around. It'll swing up. The smart money is buying right now. Others will buy on the upswing. A lot of them might possibly get burned again when it slides again.