Poll: Who wins the election?

Based on I think he's going to win.

hunch: a feeling or guess based on intuition rather than known facts.

I know all signs point to me being wrong, but I'm just not buying what's being sold. I've been wrong before, and I wouldn't put money on it, I just think he wins.

Of the 4 states that will decide (MI, MN, WI and PA) I think Trump gets PA, but that’s it. If any of OH, FL, TX, AZ, Etc flip I don’t see a path for him.

As it stands, he could nab 2/4 and steal it.

OH, FL, TX, and AZ are Trumps.

posted by justincredible

I know all signs point to me being wrong, but I'm just not buying what's being sold. I've been wrong before, and I wouldn't put money on it, I just think he wins.

I have a friend out of nowhere very bullish on Trump winning and was just curious if your hunch was based on anything.  I think it will be closer than people think, but I don't see Trump winning.

posted by like_that

I have a friend out of nowhere very bullish on Trump winning and was just curious if your hunch was based on anything.  I think it will be closer than people think, but I don't see Trump winning.

I think it comes down to MI, MIN and WI - all of which appear to be comfortably for Biden.  I'd be tempted to give Trump any state he's polling within 3-4 points, but he's down 6-8 in most polls for those states.

Which leaves PA.  Trump is close in some polls, down 8-9 in others.  I think a few too many people have voted early for the last debate and the last two weeks to have made much difference.  I think he loses PA very narrowly and loses the election.

And that kind of fits with what the Biden campaign is doing.  Trying to flip AZ, GA, NC or FL which would give him another path if Trump takes one of the 4 blue wall states.

I think Trump may well take Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire ....possibly Virginia. 

posted by QuakerOats

I think Trump may well take Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire ....possibly Virginia. 

Well, NV + NH is 10 electoral votes, so that would be a hell of a way for Trump to win.