I was just thinking today "how would you even attach a fundamental value to BTC"....and oddly enough there was an economic forum in my inbox discussing just that.
Most said it was fundamentally worthless, while a few felt it's fundamental value would be a "convenience fee" on the total value of actual transactions.
I called $9000 early in the year not long ago, but truthfully I have no idea what it should be or how low it can go. I could have [and would have] easily said there's no reason or understanding to be $1200 a year ago. Hell, even if it were worth $2k and you started dollar cost averaging down to that, you'd still have lost like 60% on the way down to that!
Futures are not exactly the best (or smartest) way to short something. I DO think it would be a smart play, if you could, to short the 2-3 most popular and go long the 2-3 next most popular. That actually sounds like a pretty dumb idea reading it after I type it out, but the market is that crazy and irrational. Basically my theory is the suckers will continue to flock to the names they see in the news, while the "smart" money rotates into lesser known names....wash, rinse, repeat