Progressives, part 3...

posted by O-Trap

I'm not saying both scenarios aren't the most likely outcomes.  I'm only saying that I could see the latter one having a few different ones, depending on how things go.

The market and the economy are pretty good predictors of re-election, and that was all he really had going for him.  If people are still scared and uncertain about Cov-19 come election time, I think it will be a bloodbath for Republicans.  I don't see "everyone else is just as bad" or even "we did better than most other countries" being a winning campaign argument.

It doesn't sound like there's a middling outcome here.  This will either be under control in a few months, or you've lost control.  It sounds, to me, like we're mostly talking a binary outcome - controlled, or not.  If it's controlled, I think Trump gets re-elected as that leaves plenty of time for markets and the economy to recover.

posted by gut

The market and the economy are pretty good predictors of re-election, and that was all he really had going for him.  If people are still scared and uncertain about Cov-19 come election time, I think it will be a bloodbath for Republicans.  I don't see "everyone else is just as bad" or even "we did better than most other countries" being a winning campaign argument.

It doesn't sound like there's a middling outcome here.  This will either be under control in a few months, or you've lost control.  It sounds, to me, like we're mostly talking a binary outcome - controlled, or not.  If it's controlled, I think Trump gets re-elected as that leaves plenty of time for markets and the economy to recover.

You may be right.  My alternative thought was merely to point out that this virus does make an awfully convenient scapegoat for an economy that had been trending positively up until it made landfall in the US.

posted by O-Trap

You may be right.  My alternative thought was merely to point out that this virus does make an awfully convenient scapegoat for an economy that had been trending positively up until it made landfall in the US.

If this is under control, globally, in a few months then the recession is basically over and done with.  Cov-19 would have sucked all the excess out of the markets (and then some), and probably resulted in pent-up demand that would be better than any stimulus you could provide.

Basically, you end-up with a recession that doesn't have the associated job losses or reduced capacity.  That would be something else.  Although that probably leads to a double-dip in 12-24 months.

We are coming out of this by summer.  The economy is going to ramp back up to where it was.  Stock market will be back to 27,000.  Election time the economy will be banging and Trump wins in a landslide.

This corona thing plays into the hands of the party in control right now.  

posted by Spock

We are coming out of this by summer.  The economy is going to ramp back up to where it was.  Stock market will be back to 27,000.  Election time the economy will be banging and Trump wins in a landslide.

 

This corona thing plays into the hands of the party in control right now.  

I don't think you understand how the economy works. The impacts of this will be with us for months....The R word is entirely possible. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I don't think you understand how the economy works. The impacts of this will be with us for months....The R word is entirely possible. 

I mean, spock says some pretty stupid stuff, but I wouldn't call him...the R word.

Never forget during these times that the media still hates you. Multiple blue checks misquoting Trump about hospitals getting their own ventilators and other supplies (including the NYT and HuffPost). Not to mention the media spreading Chinese propaganda that they aren't to blame and trying to say calling it Chinese Virus or Wuhan virus is racist. You'd think in a pandemic they might tone it down, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I don't think you understand how the economy works. The impacts of this will be with us for months....The R word is entirely possible. 

I know a little about this.  Economy indicators are to strong for this to last that long.

posted by justincredible

I mean, spock says some pretty stupid stuff, but I wouldn't call him...the R word.

LOL.

Recession.....that R word 

posted by Spock

I know a little about this.  Economy indicators are to strong for this to last that long.

Ok Larry Kudlow...

posted by ptown_trojans_1

LOL.

Recession.....that R word 

I know, but it was a decent setup for a spock joke.

Cuomo is a jackass....Struggling to keep it under control in NY, so the past few days he's basically advocating martial law and crying about Trump not implementing it.

Typical liberal attitude expecting the Feds to get heavy-handed when a more nuanced state/local response is what's needed.

posted by gut

Cuomo is a jackass....Struggling to keep it under control in NY, so the past few days he's basically advocating martial law and crying about Trump not implementing it.

Typical liberal attitude expecting the Feds to get heavy-handed when a more nuanced state/local response is what's needed.

he would bitch about Trump if he did lock down the city.  Either way.  

posted by Spock

I know a little about this.  Economy indicators are to strong for this to last that long.

Are you actually suggesting that we're expected to believe you know a little something about a pandemic's influence on macroeconomic trends?
 

posted by gut

Cuomo is a jackass....Struggling to keep it under control in NY, so the past few days he's basically advocating martial law and crying about Trump not implementing it.

Typical liberal attitude expecting the Feds to get heavy-handed when a more nuanced state/local response is what's needed.

Cuomo is a twat waffle.

posted by O-Trap

Cuomo is a twat waffle.

 

Never heard that one

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/26/former-uk-pm-gordon-brown-time-for-global-government-to-tackle-coronavirus/

Man people like this are scary...."global government"??????  Yea sure I know a guy name Adolf that would like to be in charge.

posted by Spock

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/26/former-uk-pm-gordon-brown-time-for-global-government-to-tackle-coronavirus/

 

 

Man people like this are scary...."global government"??????  Yea sure I know a guy name Adolf that would like to be in charge.

LOL.

I love how that article twists those words man. What do you think he meant a New World Order? 

He is talking about the typical responses we had in previous worldwide heath crisis like Ebola, Zika, etc. There groups like the G7 and G20 coordinated with the WHO and UN to help fight the issue. 

I'd even say it is more like how we, as a world, eliminated polio back in the day. That was a UN led effort and is widely seen as the greatest accomplishment by the UN. 

Yeah, the fact some people look at Breitbart articles as having more worth than simply being something that could be printed out to use as emergency toilet paper in these times is pretty scary.

posted by Heretic

Yeah, the fact some people look at Breitbart articles as having more worth than simply being something that could be printed out to use as emergency toilet paper in these times is pretty scary.

Ironically, it's is often people who constantly complain about the evil media bias that highlight articles from places like Breitbart. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

LOL.

I love how that article twists those words man. What do you think he meant a New World Order? 

He is talking about the typical responses we had in previous worldwide heath crisis like Ebola, Zika, etc. There groups like the G7 and G20 coordinated with the WHO and UN to help fight the issue. 

I'd even say it is more like how we, as a world, eliminated polio back in the day. That was a UN led effort and is widely seen as the greatest accomplishment by the UN. 

Regardless what was meant, little Ohio is doing far better than the U.S. as a whole and better than a number of countries all over the world. Perhaps a local approach may be better.